The FIFA World Cup of Forex

The FIFA World Cup of Forex

With so many eyes on the FIFA World Cup in Qatar, it might be tempting to draw parallels between the tournament and movements in the forex market. While the performance of a country’s team in the World Cup is unlikely to be fundamentally tied to the performance of its currency, there’s an interesting trend to explore when you look at the results of recent games and compare them to forex movements.

Results on and off the pitch

• Brazil vs. Serbia (Friday): Brazil won 2-0. As of writing, the Brazilian Real has appreciated by over 1% against the US dollar.
• Australia vs. Tunisia (Saturday): Australia won 1-0. Despite the win, the Australian Dollar is down by ~0.80% against the US dollar. The Socceroos were outclassed in possession and shots on goal, which might explain the lack of impact on the AUD.
• Japan vs. Costa Rica (Sunday): Japan lost 1-0. As of writing, the Japanese Yen is down by ~0.60% against the US dollar.
• Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (Sunday): Poland won 2-0. The Polish Zloty has gained about 0.1% against the US dollar.
• France vs. Denmark (Sunday): France won 2-1. The Euro/Danish Krone cross-rate has edged up by 0.005%.
• Argentina vs. Mexico (Sunday): Argentina won 2-0. The Argentine Peso has dropped by 0.25% against the US dollar, bucking the overall trend of rising currencies.
• Canada vs. Croatia (Today): Canada lost 4-1. The Canadian Dollar is down by ~0.50% against the US dollar.

Forex to Watch Next

• USA vs. Iran (Wednesday): The USA is the favorite to win. This could affect the USD, as it’s already the dominant currency in the market.
• England vs. Wales (Wednesday): England is favored to win, potentially influencing the GBP.
• Australia vs. Denmark (Thursday): Denmark is the favorite to win. A loss for Australia might further weigh on the AUD.
• France vs. Tunisia (Thursday): France is the favorite to win. This could boost the EUR and French-related assets.

While there is no direct link between World Cup performance and forex market trends, it’s fun to observe how national pride, and perhaps even a bit of luck, plays out on both the pitch and in the market!